COMPLEX SPATIAL MODELLING POSSIBILITIES OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHANGES OF HUNGARY – POTENTIAL APPROACHES AND METHODS

  • 1 Institute for Regional Studies, CERS HAS (MTA KRTK Regionális Kutatások Intézete), Hungary

Abstract

The paper overviews the possible methodological and practical approaches which can be used to create a custom-made toolset for the complex spatial modelling and forecasting of the socio-economic processes of Hungary for the 21th century. The author already participated in projects concerning land cover change and demographic modelling and gathered valuable experience in creating isolated models. In his three-year post-doctoral research programme, the author plans to take a more holistic approach with combining the elements of demography, economy and land use to create an integrated model with feedbacks between the consisting parts. The proposed methodology relies heavily on a scenario-based approach, creating a range of different forecasts from the business-as-usual ones to the highly improbable ones to explore the outer edges of future possibilities. Both local and global future assumptions will be considered during the formulation of the scenarios. An additional goal is to make the prepared modelling tool publicly available.

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