Passenger intensity prediction as a tool for effective management of regional rail transport

  • 1 CTU in Prague, Faculty of Transportation Sciences, Czech Republic


Regional rail transport is a key part of the transport process, and its importance is growing every year. Suburban rail forms the backbone of the regional transport system and is widely regarded as a sustainable form of mobility with societal benefits. On the other hand, the costs associated with operating rail transport are significant and it is essential to design cost-effective and efficient transport solutions. This paper takes a closer look at the prediction of passenger volumes and the associated options for effective management of regional rail transport when travel demand is known. A practical application is developed in the conditions of suburban rail transport in the vicinity of Ostrava in the Czech Republic. It analyses the available data on transport supply and travel demand of which passengers can be assigned to specific directions and time slots in relation to daily and weekly variations of travel demand. Based on the data provided, a model for assigning passengers with respect to public transport supply was proposed. The prediction is harmonised with local specific conditions. The results obtained were used to design a new operational concept for the suburban railway in the assessed area. On the basis of the data obtained, a modelled composition of vehicle units and frequency of services on individual sections was proposed. An appropriately set capacity of the vehicle units enables a significant reduction of operating costs and leads to an economical and efficient transport solution.



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