MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION OF THE ARCTIC REGIONS OF RUSSIA IN THE PERIOD FROM 2003 TO 2015
- 1 Institute of Earth Sciences, Saint Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia
The integral assessment of environmental quality and quality of life of the population of 9 regions of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation in the period from 2003 to 2015 is considered. To build integrated indicators, we used: summary indicators, randomized summary indicators, and "ASPID methodology" (analysis and synthesis of indicators in the information deficit). When calculating weights, incomplete, inaccurate, non-numeric information was taken into account) about the criteria and priorities of the evaluation. To assess the quality of the environment, 8 parameters were used. To assess the quality of life of the population, the state of three subsystems was taken into account: ecological (8 parameters), economic (5 parameters), social (5 parameters). The choice of criteria was made taking into account the information available on the website of the Federal Service of State Statistics of the Russian Federation, in the collections "Regions of Russia" and in state reports "On the state of the environment …" To assess the quality of the environment in the regions and the quality of life of the population of the regions, five quality classes were introduced (I – high, II – above average, III – average, IV – below average, V – low). In constructing integral indicators, the sum of the normalized values of the indicators within subsystems (blocks) and between them was used as a synthesizing function, taking into account the equilibrium or nonequilibrium setting of priorities. When assessing the quality of the environment, all regions fall into the third class (middle – the right border of the class) with a slight temporal change. In evaluating the quality of life, three groups of regions were identified. In the first group, the quality of life for the period under review improved by 10 percent or more. The second group includes regions with an improvement in the quality of life by 5-10%, the third group includes regions with an improvement in the quality of life up to 5%. For the same time interval, the quality of life of the APR regions was compared with the regions of Central Russia (Tver Region). The forecast scenarios of a possible change in the quality of the environment and the quality of life of the population in the regions are considered. The studies were carried out with the support of the RFBR grant No. 16-05-00715-a.