International Scientific Journals
of Scientific Technical Union of Mechanical Engineering "Industry 4.0"

Cyber space as a new dimension of human activities has brought new possibilities not only for economic development offering new possibilities in information exchange together with approach to online data sources worldwide but also for human to human communication and entertainment in general. These factors underline not only its political magnitude but also have become important from military point of view in two directions. On one hand, freedom of use the cyber space has been one of vital state interests to be protected by military power. On the other hand, the cyber space has been a new way how to disrupt potential adversary´s economic, political as well as military power.
Importance of this new, but already explored, battlefield should be reflected about defence planning of the country to develop requirements of appropriate capabilities to protect own interests and if necessary, to limit power of potential adversary in general.

The paper overviews the possible methodological and practical approaches which can be used to create a custom-made toolset for the complex spatial modelling and forecasting of the socio-economic processes of Hungary for the 21th century. The author already participated in projects concerning land cover change and demographic modelling and gathered valuable experience in creating isolated models. In his three-year post-doctoral research programme, the author plans to take a more holistic approach with combining the elements of demography, economy and land use to create an integrated model with feedbacks between the consisting parts. The proposed methodology relies heavily on a scenario-based approach, creating a range of different forecasts from the business-as-usual ones to the highly improbable ones to explore the outer edges of future possibilities. Both local and global future assumptions will be considered during the formulation of the scenarios. An additional goal is to make the prepared modelling tool publicly available.

In this paper, a simulation model of the novel concept of autonomous vehicles is developed for public transport (PT) service. The model aims to serve PT planners as a tool enabling the simulation of a metro-like, high-frequency service with punctual autonomous vehicles running on exclusive lanes. The model was applied in a numerical example of a passenger bus, with different scenarios employed. The outcome of the simulation shows that characteristics of the modelled system are reproduced, with the following results: (i) highfrequency, metro-like PT service, with reduced passenger waiting time, (ii) reduced vehicle capacity with reduced average dwell time; (iii) the least number of unserved passengers, across all scenarios, and (iv) better utilisation of vehicle capacity (with fewer unserved passengers) achieved through a small decrease in vehicle frequency, which led to a negligible increase of the average passenger waiting times. In addition, the model allows us to examine the system’s behaviour under uncertainty, considering passenger arrivals and vehicle headways as random input variables with predefined probability distributions. The proposed model enables modellers not only to evaluate a system’s performance, but also to examine different working conditions and possible future scenarios.