Traffic Accident Characteristics of Albania and their Prediction Using Bayesian Approach

  • 1 Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania


The accident severity index of Albania has shown an increasing trend, although in 2020 there was a marked decrease of total accidents but some increase of fatal accidents. Looking at various risk factors—time, location, or speeding—this paper aims to develop a probability model that predicts accident-risk levels—flagging particularly hazardous locations or dangerous stretches of highway throughout the country—by using a Poisson model under a Bayesian Approach that can be used to predict the number of accidents occurring in a city per year from data collected.. From statistical data of a year of reference, the parameters of these model are comp uting, with which the final distribution is considered that predicts the occurrence of car accidents in a city. The model can be very useful to those who working in the transportation and public safety sectors providing them information that could help make modifications, whether it is designs of the road or different signage, to protect drivers and citizens.



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