MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
Application of artificial neural networks for prediction of business indicators
- 1 University of Chemical Technology and Metallurgy – Sofia Bulgaria
This paper examines the applicability of the neural networks in developing predictive models. A predictive model based on artificial neural networks has been proposed and training has been simulated by applying the Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network module and the time series method. Python programming language to simulate the neural network was used. The model uses the stochastic gradient descent and optimizes the mean square error. Business indicators for forecasting the results of the activity and the risk of bankruptcy of a company are forecasted and a comparison of the obtained forecast values with the actual ones is performed in order to assess the accuracy of the forecast of the developed model. As a result, it can be noted that business indicators can be successfully predicted through the Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network and the forecasted values are close to the actual ones.
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