MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF MEDICAL-BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS
Logistic equation for the study of COVID – 19 in Albania
- 1 Polytechnic University of Tirana, Albania
The rapid spread of COVID-19 disease worldwide has caused a frightening crisis in the health care system in many states. To prevent it, many states have taken various measures, including total blockades. In this paper we have used the logistic growth model to show the increase in the population of the number infected with the Covid-19 virus in Albania. The generalized logistic equation is used to interpret the COVID-19 epidemic data in Albania. The growth rate was calculated using two random data and the expected number of infected people. The predictions of the logistic model are as correct as the data are accurate, and that correct that they can imitate the dynamics of the epidemic. The model clearly shows that there is a correlation between real and projected data. When daily predictions of epidemic size begin to converge, we can say that the epidemic is under control. If we deviate from the forecast curve it may indicate that the epidemic may get out of control. With a fully valid model, this type of information can be used as an example by policy makers to assess how to take appropriate action.
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